Hey there —

Every few weeks the headlines decide landlords are heading for the exits. Soft market, rising costs, "the great sell-off." Own a rental or two, and it's easy to feel like you're watching the last train pull away.

Here's what the data actually says: nearly nine in ten single-family rentals are owned by small landlords with one to five properties — and the overwhelming majority are staying put. There's no stampede. And the ones who are selling mostly aren't choosing to — they're squeezed out: insurance and taxes finally outran a thin deal's rent, or a life event forced the timing. Got a sub-4% loan and a unit that still covers itself? You're not in that group — you're a choosing seller, and a choosing seller has what a forced one doesn't: time to run the number first.

The number is the whole game. The trap I see again and again: an owner looks at a rental that "gained" $110,000 on paper and assumes that's the check they'd walk away with. It isn't. Once depreciation recapture, capital gains, and selling costs take their cut, that $110K nets closer to $60K — before you even count the sub-4% mortgage you'd surrender for good. I ran the whole exit math here, because almost nobody does it before they call an agent.

And every "should I sell" take leaves out the biggest variable: your market. Cleveland, where prices are still climbing, and Austin, where they've slid, aren't the same question — and it isn't only prices that differ. New York just froze the rent on a million apartments, and the take machine instantly called it the end of landlording everywhere. It isn't: that's big pre-1974 stabilized buildings, not the duplex you own, and most states bar cities from rent control outright. I broke down whether the NYC freeze actually reaches you. Know your own market — prices and rules — before you flinch at a headline, starting with your own metro.

Then two things. First, the decision was never "sell or don't" — it's three doors: sell, hold, or 1031 into something better. That's the Exit Triangle we built on the podcast. Second, if you're staying — and most of you are — the edge is operating well. The first leak to plug isn't even the renewal — it's the unit that's sat empty seven weeks, whose real number is $0, not last year's rent. Then the renewal you negotiate off effective rent, not the asking number, the deposit you defend at move-in rather than move-out, and the screening that holds up whether you DIY it or hire it out.

But before any of that, get your real net on paper. Here's a prompt you can paste into ChatGPT or Claude and run on your own numbers tonight:

I own a rental I'm considering selling. Purchase price: $____. Estimated sale price today: $____. Depreciation I've taken: ~$____. My federal tax bracket: ___%. Current mortgage rate: ___%. Walk me through: (1) my after-tax net proceeds — sale price minus depreciation recapture (up to 25%), capital gains (15–20% + possible 3.8% NIIT), and ~7% selling costs; (2) the annual "lock-in" cost of giving up my rate to re-borrow at today's ~7.25%; and (3) whether holding or a 1031 exchange likely beats selling. Show the math and flag what to confirm with my CPA.

Two minutes, and "should I sell?" turns from a feeling into a figure.

What's your number — and which door are you leaning toward? Hit reply and tell me — I read every one, and the sharpest ones steer where this goes.

Martin

P.S. Next week: the insurance map — and why "the Florida crisis" is quietly becoming the one market that's easing, while the real shock moves inland.